Younger votes still lean toward Biden — but it’s complicated

President Biden delivering remarks on student debt and lowering costs for Americans at Madison College in Madison, Wisconsin, earlier this month.Kyle Mazza/NurPhoto via AP

Nation & World

Younger votes still lean toward Biden — but it’s complicated

New IOP poll shows they still plan to show up to vote but are subject to ‘seismic mood swings’ over specific issues

Christina Pazzanese

Harvard Staff Writer

April 19, 2024

2 min read

Younger voters turned out in historic numbers to help lift Joe Biden past Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. This year, the match-up is the same, but the feelings are much more complicated.

Gen Z and late Millennial voters (ages 18-29) are more dissatisfied with their choices and worried over kitchen table issues such as inflation and housing. But most still support Biden over Trump, contrary to some earlier polls, and they do still intend to make their voices heard in November, according to a new Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday.

John Della Volpe, the IOP’s longtime polling director, said he sees “seismic mood swings” in the results as young people feel “angst” over a host of issues.

“They’re deeply concerned … about the direction of the country. They are deeply concerned about their own economic well-being, the cost of housing, inflation, [the] day-to-day cost of living. They’re concerned about conflicts around the world,” he said. “But at the same time, the choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden isn’t necessarily close.”

The poll surveyed just over 2,000 Americans nationwide between the ages of 18 and 29 from March 14-21. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.02 points. Launched in 2000, the Harvard Youth Poll is the largest political survey of young Americans and is administered by the Harvard Public Opinion Project, an undergraduate-run organization.

In a head-to-head matchup, Biden leads Trump by eight points (45 percent-37 percent). Among those most likely to vote, his lead expands to 19 points (56 percent-37 percent). That’s considerably smaller than Biden’s advantage in spring 2020 when he was up by 23 points among all young voters and 30 points among likely voters.

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